Paraguay, One Step From the Round of 16: What the Albirroja Needs to Advance in the 2026 World Cup

Paraguay stands on the brink of advancing to the knockout stages of the 2026 World Cup, following a crucial victory over Turkey. The Albirroja, led by coach Gustavo Alfaro, now has its fate in its own hands as they prepare for their final group stage match.

The team's immediate objective is to secure second place in Group D. This requires a win against Australia in their upcoming fixture. Both Paraguay and Australia currently sit on three points, but Australia holds an advantage in goal difference. A draw or a loss would relegate Paraguay to third place, forcing them to rely on the performance of other third-placed teams to qualify.

Historically, accumulating four points as a third-placed team has often been sufficient for advancement in the expanded 48-team World Cup format, where eight of the twelve third-placed teams move on. However, a loss would leave Paraguay with only three points and a negative goal difference, making their progression highly uncertain.

Should Paraguay secure the second spot, they would face the runner-up of Group G in the Round of 16. If they advance as a best third-placed team, their opponent and the match venue would depend on complex FIFA pairings and the results of other group matches. Regardless of the scenario, the match against Australia is being treated as a "final" by the Paraguayan squad, who are eager to continue their World Cup dream after a 16-year absence.