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Pas Support Not Enough to Guarantee BN Victory in Johor Election, Analyst Says
🇲🇾 Malaysia /Elections & Politics

Pas Support Not Enough to Guarantee BN Victory in Johor Election, Analyst Says

From Utusan Malaysia · () Malay

Translated from Malay, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Context piece
  • Pas's open support does not guarantee Barisan Nasional (BN) an easy victory in the Johor state election, according to political analyst Dr. Mazlan Ali.
  • Voter turnout is identified as the crucial factor determining the outcome, with different turnout percentages favoring either BN or Pakatan Harapan (PH).
  • The Johor election results will significantly influence BN's political direction leading up to the 16th General Election (PRU16).

Political analyst Dr. Mazlan Ali suggests that the open support from the Malaysian Islamic Party (Pas) does not automatically ensure a straightforward win for Barisan Nasional (BN) in the ongoing Johor state election. He emphasizes that voter turnout remains the decisive element in determining the election's outcome, a pattern observed in previous elections.

Although there are Bersatu candidates in several seats, Pas has stated that it will not help that party. Therefore, Malay votes that previously supported Pas have the potential to shift to BN.

— Dr. Mazlan AliExplaining the potential impact of Pas's stance on Bersatu in the Johor elections.

Dr. Mazlan explained that while Pas's backing could boost BN's Malay vote count, it might not be enough if the voter turnout favors Pakatan Harapan (PH). He noted that in two-cornered contests, Pas's stated refusal to support Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) could lead some Pas supporters to shift their votes to BN. "However, the situation still depends on the voter turnout rate, as that is the factor that ultimately determines the election results," he stated.

According to Dr. Mazlan, if voter turnout exceeds 75 percent, PH has a stronger potential to win more seats than BN. Conversely, if turnout falls below 60 percent, BN stands a better chance of securing more seats. A turnout between 75 and 80 percent might result in a near-even split, with PH possibly winning slightly more seats.

However, the situation still depends on the voter turnout rate, as that is the factor that ultimately determines the election results.

— Dr. Mazlan AliHighlighting the critical role of voter turnout in the Johor election outcome.

The analyst also commented that smaller parties are unlikely to significantly alter the electoral landscape, as they are competing within their own coalitions and do not show a clear inclination to support either major bloc. He added that the Johor election results will serve as a critical indicator for BN's political trajectory leading up to the 16th General Election (PRU16). A significant BN victory in Johor could embolden the coalition to contest nationally on its own. However, if the win is heavily reliant on Pas's support, BN might reconsider Pas as a suitable partner for future elections, amidst ongoing internal discussions within BN about potential alliances with PH, Pas, or contesting independently.

If BN wins big in Johor, it is not impossible that the coalition will be more confident to move solo at the national level.

— Dr. Mazlan AliDiscussing the implications of a BN victory in Johor for their national political strategy.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Utusan Malaysia in Malay. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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