Peace by piece

An interim agreement has been reached between the United States and Iran, marking a significant step in a two-phase peace process. The initial phase involves a 60-day ceasefire extension, commitments from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the cessation of the US blockade.

“

WITH the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, an interim deal has been agreed.

This preliminary accord, however, is only the first part of a more arduous journey. The second phase is set to tackle the contentious nuclear file and other deeply entrenched issues, presenting a considerably tougher negotiation landscape. The difficulty in reaching even this preliminary agreement suggests that securing a comprehensive settlement will be a formidable challenge, further complicated by Israel's persistent regional influence.

After four months of conflict, both the US and Iran expressed a desire to disengage. President Donald Trump appeared particularly eager for an exit, facing mounting domestic political and economic pressures. Concerns over rising oil prices and inflation, coupled with an unpopular war and a divided Republican party ahead of mid-term elections, fueled this urgency.

“

In what will be a two-step peace process the first phase freezes the war by extending the ceasefire for another 60 days.

Iran, meanwhile, was strategically positioned to leverage its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade. Its retaliatory actions against US bases and energy infrastructure in the Gulf heightened the war's costs for America and its allies. Tehran effectively employed economic leverage, though it also faced substantial losses due to sanctions and reduced oil market access.

“

It commits Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and the US to end its blockade.

The agreement, ending a four-month war, underscores the failure of military force as a primary objective. The US and Israel's campaign did not compel Iran to capitulate. A militarily weaker nation, under sanctions, managed to hold its ground, demonstrating the underestimated power of nationalism. While the US pursued a war of choice with unclear objectives, Iran viewed the conflict as an existential challenge, with its will to survive, fueled by nationalist sentiment, proving decisive.

“

But the hard part lies ahead as the second phase has to address the nuclear file and other thorny issues.