Pernambuco Governor Race Tied Between Lyra and Campos, Poll Shows

A new Datafolha poll reveals a tight race for the governorship of Pernambuco, with current Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) and former Recife Mayor João Campos (PSB) in a technical tie for a potential second-round election. Lyra garners 49% of voter intentions compared to Campos's 45%, a narrow margin within the poll's three-percentage-point error range. This represents a slight narrowing of the gap from May, when Lyra held a 7-point lead.

In a simulated first-round scenario, Lyra edges out Campos with 48% to 42%, a 6-point difference that places them at the extreme limit of the margin of error, making an outright win unlikely for either. Other candidates, Ivan Moraes (PSOL) and Camila Falcão (UP), each received 1% of support. The poll surveyed 1,022 Pernambuco voters between July 28 and 30 and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court.

The survey also explored spontaneous voting intentions, where Lyra received 38% and Campos 25%, with a significant portion of respondents undecided or voting blank/null. In the second-round simulation, Lyra shows strength among evangelical voters and those who supported Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, while Campos leads among voters with only primary education and those who voted for President Lula in 2022. The gender breakdown shows a technical tie among women and a lead for Lyra among men.

Regarding the race for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, Marília Arraes (PDT) appears to hold a slight numerical lead in both tested scenarios, though she is in a technical tie with incumbent Senator Humberto Costa (PT). Other candidates, including Fernando Dueire (PSD), Túlio Gadêlha (PSD), Mendonça Filho (PL), Miguel Coelho (União Brasil), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP), are also polling, with a substantial percentage of voters remaining undecided or choosing blank/null votes.