Peru faces high probability of extraordinary El Niño event

Peru is bracing for a potentially extraordinary El Niño event, with authorities forecasting a high probability of its occurrence from September 2026 to January 2027. The latest report from Peru's National Institute for the Study of El Niño (Enfen) indicates a roughly 70% chance of the phenomenon reaching extraordinary magnitude during this period.

El Niño, known for its irregular recurrence, is marked by a significant warming of the East Tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming typically triggers severe weather patterns, including torrential rains along Peru's northern coast and in Ecuador, leading to widespread flooding, river overflows, and devastating mudslides, locally known as 'huaicos'.

While the probability slightly decreases to 62% by January 2027, the intensity is expected to remain strong to very strong through February and March. Forecasters also anticipate air temperatures to remain well above normal along the entire coast through October, with the possibility of breaking historical records. River flows in the Pacific basin are generally expected to be within normal ranges, but the risk of extreme rainfall events remains.

In anticipation of the most adverse scenario, Peruvian authorities are preparing to assist up to 1.2 million people, with the majority likely to be affected in the northern coastal areas. Current preventative efforts are concentrated on clearing riverbeds. This crucial task aims to ensure unimpeded water flow during potential flood events, thereby reducing the risk of overflow into populated areas, particularly in vulnerable cities like Piura, which has historically been hard-hit by such events.