Peru revises 2026 economic growth forecast up to 3.4%

Peru's economic outlook for 2026 and 2027 has received an upgrade, with the Ministry of Economy and Finance now forecasting a 3.4% growth rate for both years. This revised estimate, detailed in the Macroeconomic Multiannual Framework 2027-2030, surpasses the 3.2% projection made in April and is attributed to a strong domestic demand bolstered by increased private spending.

Private investment is a key driver of this optimism, projected to surge by 10.5% in 2026. This growth is underpinned by significant advancements in both mining and non-mining projects. Mining investment alone is expected to exceed $7 billion, supported by ongoing projects, increased exploration, and favorable metal prices linked to the global energy transition. Non-mining investment is also set to recover, driven by infrastructure initiatives, public-private partnerships, and the hydrocarbon sector.

This economic dynamism is anticipated to stimulate job creation and boost private consumption by 3.6%. Consequently, non-primary sectors are expected to expand by 4.2%, with notable contributions from construction, commerce, services, and non-primary manufacturing. The robust domestic demand is seen as a crucial buffer, partially offsetting supply-side challenges affecting primary sectors.

Primary sectors are forecast to contract by 1.4% in 2026, primarily due to the lingering effects of the El Niño climate phenomenon on fishing, primary manufacturing, and agriculture. Moderate growth in mining and hydrocarbons, coupled with rising oil prices impacting transportation and production costs, will also contribute to inflationary pressures. However, the situation is expected to improve in 2027 as the effects of El Niño coastal recede, allowing primary sectors to grow by 2.7%.