Poland's markets remain strong amid US bond uncertainty and Fed policy shifts

Poland's stock market, the Warsaw Stock Exchange (GPW), is poised for another strong performance in the current year, building on a highly successful 2025. Recent record highs on Friday further underscore this positive outlook, according to forecasts from brokerage firms and investment fund companies.

In contrast, US Treasury bonds have presented a significant and negative surprise in the first half of the year. While experts had initially anticipated their strengthening or stable yields, a sell-off occurred as market expectations shifted regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The market moved from anticipating rate cuts to predicting as many as two hikes by the end of the year. Konrad Ogrodowicz, manager at Superfund TFI, believes the market has overreacted to potential monetary tightening. He argues there is no room for two 25-basis-point rate hikes within the next 12 months and expects investors to adjust their expectations, leading to lower yields on long-term US Treasury bonds. Ogrodowicz also predicts that gold, which has seen significant price drops since late February, will be the primary beneficiary of declining US bond yields.

However, Bartosz Stryjewski from Amundi Polska TFI offers a different perspective, suggesting that the market's pricing of small Fed rate hikes, driven by a strong labor market and inflation above 4%, will limit the potential for yield decreases. Stryjewski is more optimistic about Polish bonds. He points to the dovish stance of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), inflation figures that, despite a slight increase, remain within the maximum fluctuation band around the target until the end of 2028 according to NBP projections, and the higher yields offered by Polish government bonds compared to other Central European countries like the Czech Republic and Hungary. Patryk Pyka from DI Xelion shares this positive view on Polish government debt, citing the RPP's dovish attitude. However, he also believes the potential for further yield decreases is becoming limited, expecting a drop to 5% for ten-year bonds this year.

“

Rynek przereagował obawy dotyczące możliwego zacieśnienia polityki monetarnej przez Rezerwę Federalną. W mojej ocenie w horyzoncie najbliższych 12 miesięcy nie ma przestrzeni na dwie podwyżki stóp procentowych po 25 pkt. baz.. W kolejnych miesiącach inwestorzy powinni dojść do podobnych wniosków, co doprowadzi do spadku oczekiwań dotyczących skali zacieśniania polityki pieniężnej