Poland's minimum wage rises, elections could push it higher

Poland is rapidly closing the gap with economic powerhouses like Germany and France in terms of minimum wage, and the upcoming elections could further accelerate this trend. The government has put forth a proposal for the 2027 minimum wage, setting it at 4,950 PLN. This represents an increase of 144 PLN compared to the 2026 rate of 4,806 PLN, marking a 3% rise.

Additionally, the proposed minimum hourly rate for specific civil law contracts would be 32.30 PLN starting January 1, 2027. This is a 0.90 PLN increase from the current 31.40 PLN, a slightly lower percentage growth than the monthly wage. These proposals are now heading to the Social Dialogue Council for negotiations with trade unions and employers.

However, the government's proposals are lower than those previously advocated by the Ministry of Family, Labor, and Social Policy, which had pushed for a monthly increase of 180 PLN to 4,986 PLN and an hourly rate of 32.60 PLN. Trade unions are pushing for the minimum wage to surpass 5,000 PLN significantly next year.

Discussions in the Social Dialogue Council are expected to be challenging. Employers, represented by Konfederacja Lewiatan, suggest a 2.11% increase to 4,861 PLN, aligning with the algorithm in the minimum wage law. Mariusz Zielonka, chief economist at Konfederacja Lewiatan, noted that "Negotiations in the RDS may be difficult this year because elections are approaching and the government may succumb to pressure to raise the minimum wage above 5,000 PLN." He added that media headlines highlighting the crossing of this threshold could positively influence voter perception of the ruling party. The final decision on the minimum wage for the upcoming year is anticipated around mid-September when the government issues its regulation.

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Negotiations in the RDS may be difficult this year because elections are approaching and the government may succumb to pressure to raise the minimum wage above 5,000 PLN. Media headlines showing the crossing of this threshold may positively influence the perception of the ruling team by some voters, so things could still go differently.