Polish intelligence chief warns of potential Russian provocations in Baltic states

Poland's intelligence chief, Colonel Paweł Szota, stated in his first interview with Polish media that Russia poses a direct military threat to Poland. He believes Moscow views Poland and other NATO's eastern flank countries as obstacles to its imperial ambitions.

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Seeing what is happening in Ukraine, how Russia is not succeeding in the war right now, there is an additional element of concern that Moscow may escalate further.

Szota indicated that Russia could continue its war in Ukraine for several more years, as President Vladimir Putin is "a hostage to his own failure" and will escalate the conflict. Putin is reportedly willing to sacrifice societal well-being and economic investments to declare victory in Ukraine, viewing the war as a matter of honor and a potential historical success.

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Therefore, we are dealing with unpredictability on Russia's side.

The head of Polish intelligence also expressed concern about Russia's potential for provocations in the Baltic states, including the deployment of "little green men" – unmarked soldiers. He noted that Russia systematically pushes boundaries and tests NATO's reactions, facing primarily political responses that encourage further escalation.

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Russia systematically moves the red lines, testing NATO's reactions. The cost of such provocations for Moscow is low, and the Alliance reacts mainly politically, which encourages further escalation.

Additionally, Szota voiced concern over Belarus's increasing subordination to Moscow, citing the potential deployment of nuclear weapon systems and ongoing nuclear exercises. However, he confirmed that Polish intelligence maintains communication channels with Minsk, which facilitated the release of Andrzej Poczobut. Poland, he assured, will not remain passive in the face of aggressive actions from Russia and Belarus, possessing "instruments for offensive actions."

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Poland will not remain passive in the face of aggressive actions by Russia and Belarus. Intelligence Agency has instruments for offensive actions.