Poll reveals Michelle Bolsonaro's isolation and distrust among Bolsonaro voters

Michelle Bolsonaro faces a significant challenge within the political movement she helped build, as recent polling indicates she does not command the full trust of core supporters of her husband, former President Jair Bolsonaro. A survey by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg released Thursday shows that "bolsonarismo raiz" voters place considerably more loyalty and preference on Jair Bolsonaro's sons, Flávio and Eduardo, compared to the former first lady.

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Flávio Bolsonaro: Leads the ranking with 79% of “loyalty total” and only 4% of “no loyalty”.

The data highlights internal tensions, described as keeping "Flávio and Michelle awake at night," revealing a subtle power struggle for leadership and succession within the right-wing movement in Jair Bolsonaro's absence. When "bolsonarismo raiz" voters were asked about the loyalty of key right-wing figures to the former president, Michelle Bolsonaro ranked lower than expected.

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Eduardo Bolsonaro: Appears right after, with 72% of “loyalty total” and 6% of “no loyalty”.

Flávio Bolsonaro leads the loyalty ranking with 79% of voters stating "total loyalty," followed by Eduardo Bolsonaro with 72%. Michelle Bolsonaro, however, garnered only 54% "total loyalty," falling behind even figures outside the immediate family like congressman Nikolas Ferreira (67%) and Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (58%). Notably, Michelle also registered the highest internal rejection within the Bolsonaro clan, with 15% of loyal Bolsonaro voters claiming she has "no loyalty" to her husband.

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Michelle Bolsonaro: Falls behind even names outside the family, such as congressman Nikolas Ferreira (67% total loyalty) and Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (58%). Michelle totals 54% total loyalty, registering the highest internal rejection of the clan, with 15% of voters loyal to Bolsonaro stating that she has “no loyalty” to her husband.

This internal distrust has been exacerbated by recent events, including a video where Michelle recounts being humiliated by Flávio. While the general population reacted favorably to the video's release (51% agreed), a significant 65.6% of Jair Bolsonaro's voters strongly disagreed with Michelle's decision to publish it, indicating a disconnect between her communication strategy and the ideological base's expectations. In a direct comparison of who is more loyal to the former president's political directives, Flávio Bolsonaro is favored by a wide margin, with 38.3% of voters considering him more loyal versus only 15.5% for Michelle. This sentiment translates directly into the 2026 presidential succession debate, where 81.9% of voters prefer Flávio Bolsonaro as the right-wing candidate, while Michelle attracts only 14.7% of voter intentions.

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When the general population is asked about who is more loyal to the former president's political guidelines between the two, the senator wins by a wide margin: 38.3% consider him more loyal, against only 15.5% who point to the former first lady.