Poll: Tarcísio de Freitas leads Haddad 40%-27% in São Paulo governor race

Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) holds a commanding lead in the race for the São Paulo government, with 40% of voter intentions for the first round. This places him well ahead of his main rival, former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT), who garnims 27% of support, according to a new Quaest poll released Tuesday.

The survey indicates that Freitas would also win a hypothetical second-round runoff against Haddad, with 47% of the vote compared to Haddad's 30%. This reflects a consistent trend observed in previous polls, including one from Banco Genial last month, which also showed Freitas ahead in both scenarios.

Other candidates trail significantly behind the frontrunners. Policial Edjane (Agir) and Vera Lúcia (PSTU) each have 2% of intentions. Vivian Mendes (UP), Carlos Machado (PCB), and Izadora Dias (PCO) each garnered 1%. A notable portion of voters, 14%, indicated they would cast blank or null votes, while 13% remain undecided.

The poll, commissioned by Globo and registered with the TSE, interviewed 1,800 eligible voters aged 16 and over across São Paulo state between Friday and Monday. It carries a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level. In spontaneous voting scenarios, where respondents are not prompted with candidate names, Freitas leads Haddad 21% to 9%, with a large majority (66%) undecided.