Prepare! Temperatures could rise by up to 4°C in August and September

Panama is bracing for a hotter and drier quarter, with temperatures expected to rise significantly and rainfall to decrease across much of the country between August and October 2026. The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Imhpa) issued a climate outlook predicting conditions influenced by the intensifying El Niño phenomenon.

Warmer waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are fueling El Niño, which will directly impact Panama's atmospheric conditions. Both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts will experience sea surface temperatures above average, intensifying the feeling of heat. Imhpa Director Luz Graciela de Calzadilla noted that despite this period typically being part of the rainy season, a precipitation deficit is anticipated in many areas.

Significant rainfall reductions, ranging from 20% to 45% below historical averages, are forecast for western Panama, parts of the Ngäbe Buglé region, Coclé, Panama Oeste, Panama Centro and Este, the Canal watershed, central and southern Veraguas, and western Herrera. This pattern favors prolonged dry spells, particularly in central and Pacific regions. Some areas have already accumulated up to 70% less rain than normal since El Niño's onset, with 11 river basins identified as meteorologically dry, including the Pacora River basin, which is extremely dry.

“

although these months are part of the rainy season, a deficit of precipitation is expected in a large part of the national territory.

Conversely, Bocas del Toro, northern Ngäbe Buglé, Chiriquí highlands, northern Veraguas, western Colón's Costa Abajo, and Guna Yala are expected to receive 15% to 25% more rain than usual. However, this increased precipitation could heighten the risk of localized floods, flash floods, and landslides in susceptible zones. Darién, Los Santos, and parts of Colón and Herrera are expected to have near-normal rainfall, though moderate deficits are still possible.

Imhpa urged responsible water usage due to the projected deficits and the risk of drought in several basins. The institute's forecast highlights the complex and varied climatic conditions Panama will face, emphasizing the need for preparedness for both drought and potential flood events.

“

this behavior will favor longer periods of dry weather during the rainy season, especially in the central and Pacific regions.