Professor on Russia's new plan: The goal is not what we might guess
Translated from Lithuanian, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.
At a glance
Analysis
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Context piece
- A Lithuanian professor suggests Russia's potential provocations are part of a long-term strategy, not aimed at boosting Putin's popularity before elections.
- Professor Gintautas Maลพeikis argues that Russia tests its capabilities and Western reactions through such actions.
- He criticizes Lithuania's preparedness, stating that physical security alone is insufficient and clear consequences for aggression are needed.
Professor Gintautas Maลพeikis from Vytautas Magnus University suggests that Russia's potential provocations should be viewed not through the lens of upcoming elections, but as a component of a broader, long-term Russian strategy. He dismisses the idea that such actions are primarily intended to bolster President Vladimir Putin's domestic popularity, questioning the reliability of available polling data.
In general, testing strength is important for Russia, remembering that they are preparing for a war with all of NATO.
Maลพeikis argues that while economic issues or rising prices might affect public sentiment in Russia, these are not critical factors driving the need for provocations. Instead, he believes Russia consistently seeks opportunities to test its military capabilities and observe Western responses. Therefore, isolated provocations in the future would be a logical progression of this strategy, especially considering Russia's preparations for potential conflict with NATO.
Speaking not about elections, but about Russia's strategic goals, such provocations are necessary for Russia.
Speaking on a "ลฝiniลณ radijas" program, Maลพeikis emphasized that these provocations are "necessary" for Russia's strategic goals, irrespective of electoral cycles. He also critiqued Lithuania's approach to security, differentiating between deterring local troublemakers and deterring Russia. Maลพeikis expressed doubt about Lithuania's readiness to deter Russia, stating that physical security measures are insufficient.
I understand that our forces are capable of deterring local thugs, but deterring Russia from provocations? This is a completely different level. I am not sure that Lithuania is sufficiently prepared for this.
He stressed the importance of clear communication regarding consequences. Citing Poland's public statements about potential Russian "false flag" operations, Maลพeikis suggested that such direct communication is more effective than abstract warnings. He believes deterrence is achieved when potential aggressors clearly understand the specific actions that would follow any hostile act, adding that Lithuania often reacts too late to emerging threats.
Deterrence is when, for example, it is said: if this and that happens, then we will do that and that.
DistantNews Editorial
Originally published by Delfi in Lithuanian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.
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