Professor Radosavljević: Sanctions More Likely Than NIS Buyer Amidst Uncertainty

The potential acquisition of Serbia's energy giant NIS by Hungarian oil and gas company MOL remains a topic of intense discussion, particularly in light of recent political shifts in Hungary. Professor Goran Radosavljević of the Faculty of Economics, Finance and Administration weighs in, asserting that Hungary's economic imperative to acquire NIS has not diminished despite the change in government. He posits that such a deal would be mutually beneficial, offering a "salvation" for Serbia while strengthening MOL's position as a national energy champion.

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Oni imaju jak ekonomski interes da kupe NIS, a mislim da je to za Srbiju spas, jer drugo rešenje bi bilo rizičnije. Smatram da se nije promenio mađarski interes, eventualno neki ruski interesi jesu. Mađarska je uspela da napravi nacionalnu kompaniju koja je ozbiljna i njima je ekonomski interes da priključe još jednu kompaniju i postanu još veći. Geopolitički i kompanijski interes se poklapaju i mislim da se to neće promeniti dolaskom nove vlasti

Radosavljević expresses skepticism regarding Russia's motivations for potentially selling NIS, especially considering the substantial losses Russia faces elsewhere due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and sanctions. He frames the situation as a potential "play," questioning why Russia would divest from a valuable asset under such circumstances. The professor points out that NIS has continued to operate, albeit with some losses, and has reduced its debt since sanctions were imposed in January 2025. This suggests, in his view, that Russia has maintained ownership and has not faced significant pressure to exit the company, making them the primary beneficiaries if a sale were to occur under current conditions.

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Ovo je u stvari neki igrokaz, ali ja ovde ne vidim interes ruske strane da proda kompaniju. Da li mislite da je njima milijarda evra nešto bitno u situaciji kada gube milijarde na mesečnom nivou zbog trenutnog rata

Furthermore, Radosavljević highlights the perplexing silence from the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) regarding any potential binding agreement between MOL and the Russian sellers. He finds it "symptomatic" that OFAC has not commented, suggesting that either they do not believe a deal is imminent or are unsure of their next steps. The professor argues that Serbia has not positioned itself effectively as a negotiator in this complex scenario. He concludes that the current protracted situation primarily benefits Russia, allowing them to retain ownership while Serbia faces continued uncertainty and potential geopolitical pressure. The professor believes that if a deal were truly binding, OFAC's reaction would be a key indicator, and their silence is telling.

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Sankcije su uvedene u januaru 2025, kompanija je u međuvremenu normalno poslovala, imala je neke gubitke koji nisu toliko strašni i smanjila je za 30 odsto dugovanja prema bankarskom sektoru. Dakle, Rusi su sačuvali vlasništvo godinu i po dana nakon sankcija. Da su hteli da izađu iz kompanije, to bi uradili pre godinu i po dana, i oni su jedini na dobitku. Gubi Srbija, kojoj non-stop stoji neki mač nad glavom