Putin faces growing problems but plans to continue war, underestimating Ukraine's resilience

Despite mounting challenges, Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no indication of ending the war, instead continuing to assure Russians of victory. He appears to be underestimating Ukraine's resilience, believing Kyiv will eventually collapse if Moscow simply prolongs the conflict. This strategy is likely based on a calculation of who can endure the situation the longest, rather than the immediate difficulties Russia faces.

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Putin's biggest challenge is shifting expectations as Russia faces economic strain, declining public support, and stalled peace talks.

Russia currently holds an advantage in ballistic missile usage, launching dozens monthly while Ukraine struggles with air defense. Intelligence suggests Russia is seeking additional ballistic missiles from North Korea, potentially bolstering Moscow's confidence in its superiority. Analysts anticipate Russia may intensify attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and military production sites this winter. However, Russian territorial gains have significantly slowed, with net territorial increases amounting to only about 68 square miles since June 1.

The situation within Russia also contrasts sharply with the previous year. In 2025, the Russian army regularly captured significant Ukrainian territory, and hopes for a swift end to the war were fueled by contacts with the Trump administration. These expectations have since faded. Russia now grapples with fuel market issues, regular attacks on large e-commerce warehouses, and increased economic strain due to the war. Internet disruptions further hinder the digital economy.

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The biggest challenge for Putin now is that expectations are changing. The situation is very different from a year ago. If the Moscow elite looks to the future, they will notice that everything is moving in the wrong direction.

The primary challenge for Putin is recalibrating the expectations of Russian society and its elite. The current situation is vastly different from a year ago, and the elite may perceive that matters are moving in the wrong direction. Public sentiment also reflects this shift, with support for the military actions in Ukraine reportedly at its lowest point since the full-scale invasion began. Even discussions of new peace talks have diminished following a visit to Moscow by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, with the Kremlin stating the topic is currently postponed.

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Regarding the issue of peace talks, this topic is currently completely postponed.