Putin tests NATO's 'back door' after failing to breach defenses, says ex-commander Stavridis

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be probing NATO's defenses, according to former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis. Despite Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and reduced military spending, Moscow has recently been involved in incidents that suggest a testing of the alliance's resolve.

“

Putin understands that he will lose in Ukraine, facing a combination of Kyiv's courage and determination, the smart use of drones in combat, and the huge amounts of American and European weapons.

Stavridis points to a drone carrying explosives found at a German airport and a Russian cruise missile that crashed in Poland as potential signs of this strategy. While these could be accidental, coupled with U.S. intelligence warnings, they paint a concerning picture. The question remains why Putin is escalating provocations now and how effective this strategy will be.

During Stavridis's tenure as Supreme Allied Commander from 2009 to 2013, NATO had a more constructive relationship with Moscow, cooperating on issues like piracy and terrorism. However, Putin's 2014 invasion of Ukraine revealed his true intentions: to conquer Ukraine and then leverage its resources to dominate Europe.

“

The current plan is different. Putin understands that he will lose in Ukraine, facing a combination of Kyiv's courage and determination, the smart use of drones in combat, and the huge amounts of American and European weapons.

Stavridis suggests Putin now understands he is likely to lose in Ukraine due to Kyiv's resistance, effective drone warfare, and substantial Western military aid. Putin's current strategy, therefore, focuses on disrupting this support. While U.S. aid has faltered, European nations have increased their assistance. Putin is reportedly betting that by intimidating some European countries with nuclear threats and hybrid warfare, he can fracture the alliance and achieve his goals.

“

From Moscow's perspective, the key to returning to the offensive is simple: blocking aid to the Ukrainians.

Stavridis likens Putin's approach to a burglar who, after failing to break down the front door of Europe by invading Ukraine, is now attempting to enter through a window or back door. This could involve continued "accidental" strikes on transportation hubs, as Ukraine's own drone attacks reportedly approach Putin's residence.

“

Imagine Putin as a burglar who, by attacking Ukraine, tried to break down Europe's front door. The door gave way, so he will try to enter through a window or a 'back door'.