Quaest poll gives Tarcísio 42% in São Paulo first round, Haddad 27%

Governor Tarcísio de Freitas holds a 15-point lead over former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad in the first round of São Paulo's gubernatorial race, according to a Quaest poll released Tuesday.

Tarcísio, of the Republicanos party, received 42% of voting intentions, while Haddad, of the Workers' Party, received 27%. Quaest interviewed 1,800 people aged 16 and older who live in São Paulo state from Sept. 4 to 7. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level. Globo commissioned the survey, which is registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court under code SP-00959/2026.

Tarcísio's support increased from 40% in the previous poll, while Haddad remained at 27%. Policial Edjane, of Agir, had 1%, down from 2%. Vera Lúcia, Izadora Dias and Carlos Machado each had 1%, while Vivian Mendes received no support, compared with 1% previously. Blank and invalid votes accounted for 13%, and 14% of respondents were undecided.

The poll found that 69% of voters consider their choice definitive, up from 67%, while 31% said they could still change their vote before the Oct. 4 election. In the spontaneous poll, where candidates' names were not shown, Tarcísio had 22% and Haddad 10%. Undecided voters represented 64% in that measure.

Haddad entered the race as former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's former finance minister, with the task of building a strong platform for the Workers' Party in Brazil's largest electoral state. Tarcísio supports Flávio Bolsonaro, while Republicanos has chosen to remain neutral in the national race.