Quaest poll puts Celina Leão ahead in first-round DF race with 35%

Celina Leão remains the clear leader in the race for governor of Brazil’s Federal District, according to a Quaest poll released Tuesday. The governor, from the Progressistas party, received 35% in the first-round survey, compared with 18% for José Arruda of the Social Democratic Party and 17% for Leandro Grass of the Workers’ Party.

Paula Belmonte registered 4% and Ricardo Capelli 2%. Kiko Caputo and Samara Mineiro each received 1%, while four other candidates did not score. Fifteen percent of respondents were undecided, and 7% said they would cast a blank or invalid ballot or would not vote.

Leão also led all three tested second-round matchups. She would beat Arruda 47% to 30% and Grass 52% to 29%, while Arruda would defeat Grass 41% to 28% in a direct contest. The survey was conducted with a list of candidates shown to respondents, and it carries a margin of error of three percentage points.

Quaest interviewed 1,104 people aged 16 or older from Sept. 4 to 7. The poll was commissioned by Globo and registered with Brazil’s electoral authority under two registration numbers. In the previous survey, Leão had 34% in the first round.

Arruda’s candidacy was rejected by the Federal District electoral court the previous week, and he said he would appeal. In the Senate race for two seats, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro led with 26%, followed by Leila do Vôlei with 17%, Erika Kokay with 13% and Bia Kicis with 11%.

The election is also being shaped by the crisis at Banco de Brasília, stemming from operations involving Banco Master. Former governor Ibaneis Rocha, for whom Leão served as deputy, had promoted BRB’s acquisition of Master before withdrawing his Senate bid after the arrangement became public. Leão’s administration has sought a loan of up to 6.6 billion reais from the Credit Guarantee Fund to recapitalize BRB and has asked Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court to require the federal government to guarantee the loan.