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Reconciliation, STF, and economy: Poll points that contradict Lula's camp and excite Flávio
🇧🇷 Brazil /Economy & Trade

Reconciliation, STF, and economy: Poll points that contradict Lula's camp and excite Flávio

From Estadão · () Portuguese

Translated from Portuguese, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Documents & data Context piece
  • A new poll shows President Lula da Silva leading in hypothetical 2026 presidential race scenarios, but with a narrowing gap against Flávio Bolsonaro.
  • The survey highlights five points that favor Bolsonaro's candidacy, including positive perceptions of reconciliation within his family and criticism of judicial decisions affecting his father.
  • Government programs like Desenrola and income tax exemptions show declining public perception of improved income, and Lula's response to tariff increases is viewed negatively by a significant portion of the electorate.

A recent Genial/Quaest poll reveals President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a lead in the 2026 presidential race, but with a notable shift that energizes the campaign of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. While Lula leads in both first and second-round scenarios, the survey presents several key points that could benefit Bolsonaro and challenge the ruling PT party's agenda.

For 59% the reconciliation between Flávio and Michelle was positive; 52% consider the STF's decision to prohibit Flávio's visits to Jair Bolsonaro wrong.

— Genial/Quaest poll resultsHighlighting public perception of key political and family events.

The poll indicates that 59% of respondents viewed the public reconciliation between Flávio Bolsonaro and his wife, Michelle, positively. Furthermore, 52% consider the Supreme Court's decision to prohibit Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, to be incorrect. These findings bolster the opposition's narrative and potentially enhance Flávio Bolsonaro's electoral prospects.

Perception of income improvement with Desenrola and IR exemption up to R$ 5 thousand is lower compared to July.

— Genial/Quaest poll resultsIndicating a decline in public optimism regarding economic programs.

On the government's side, popular initiatives appear to be losing traction. The perception of income improvement stemming from the Desenrola program and the expansion of income tax exemption to R$5,000 has decreased compared to July. Additionally, President Lula's reaction to recent tariff increases has been negatively assessed by 43% of the electorate, a rise from 36% the previous month, signaling growing dissatisfaction.

Lula's reaction to the tariff increase is poorly evaluated by 43%.

— Genial/Quaest poll resultsShowing negative public sentiment towards the government's handling of tariff adjustments.

Despite these challenges, Lula still leads the polls with 39% of voting intentions in the first round, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 30%. Other candidates like Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado are tied at 4%, with Romeu Zema at 2%. In a hypothetical second-round matchup, Lula secures 44% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 39%. The poll, registered with the TSE under number BR-06591/2026, surveyed 2,004 Brazilians between July 31 and August 3, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

Lula leads with 39% of voting intentions, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, with 30%.

— Genial/Quaest poll resultsPresenting the first-round voting intentions in the hypothetical 2026 presidential election.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Estadão in Portuguese. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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