Relative calm in the housing market during a turbulent year, though the war causes nerves

The Dutch housing market, often a barometer of economic sentiment, has navigated a turbulent year with surprising resilience. Despite global anxieties, including escalating geopolitical tensions and economic crises, the first quarter of 2026 has seen a notable easing of pressure, offering a glimmer of hope for prospective homeowners.

Myrte van der Spek's experience, where the signing of a purchase contract for a home in Diemen was overshadowed by international events, encapsulates the underlying nervousness. The fear that economic instability could derail major life decisions like buying a home is palpable. However, the data from NVM, the Dutch Association of Real Estate Brokers, suggests that the market, while not without its jitters, is not heading for a collapse.

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As long as there is no war.

The slight increase in available properties and the marginal rise in the average time homes spend on the market indicate a gradual shift away from the extreme seller's market of previous years. This is particularly beneficial for first-time buyers, especially in high-demand areas like the Randstad, who now face a slightly less daunting selection process. The influx of former rental properties onto the sales market, driven by regulatory changes and tax increases for landlords, further contributes to this easing.

Yet, it is crucial to temper optimism with realism. The NVM's 'scarcity indicator' still points to a market far from balanced. While improvements are noted, the gap between the number of available homes and the demand remains substantial. The Dutch perspective, as reflected in this analysis, is one of cautious relief rather than outright celebration, acknowledging that while the immediate storm may have passed, the underlying challenges of housing affordability and availability persist.

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And then suddenly soldiers were heading towards Greenland. Then you start to worry.