Reservoirs in southern Norway fall to lowest seasonal level in at least 30 years

Water levels in southern Norway’s reservoirs have fallen below the comparable level from the dry year of 1996, fueling concern that a cold winter could bring sharply higher electricity prices.

Reservoirs in the NO2 area stood at 45.9% at the end of week 35. At the same point in 1996, the level was 46.1%. During the energy crisis in 2022, it exceeded 50%.

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We do not know what the autumn will bring. It has happened before that we have had a lot of rain, so we need to wait and see the situation a little.

The low reservoir levels coincide with Europe’s highest gas price of the year and unusually low gas storage levels. Electricity prices in the NO2 area reached their highest August level since the 2022 energy crisis.

Knut Lockert of the industry organization Distriktsenergi said a wet autumn could still improve conditions. “We do not know what the autumn will bring,” he said. “We can be lucky and get a wet autumn.” Norway’s substantial capacity to import electricity should also ensure access to power in winter, he said, though the question is what consumers will have to pay.

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We can be lucky and get a wet autumn.

Tor Reier Lilleholt of Volue Insight described the situation in NO2 as strained but said Norway was unlikely to run out of water or face an electricity supply crisis. “It will probably not be an energy crisis,” he said. “If anything, it will be an energy price crisis.”

Lilleholt said weather remains the most important factor for the power system. Under normal precipitation, he estimated that NO2 reservoir levels could fall to 15% by spring, while possible 2027 electricity prices range from 30 to 180 øre per kilowatt-hour. Lower forward prices may encourage producers to generate power now rather than save water for winter, although he expects the market to adjust and provide stronger incentives to conserve supplies.

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It will probably not be an energy crisis. If anything, it will be an energy price crisis.