Romualdas Bakutis. What lies behind the migration crisis in Ceuta?

The recent influx of approximately 50,000 people into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta was not a typical wave of mass migration to Europe, with the vast majority voluntarily returning to Morocco within 24 hours. Upon realizing that Ceuta could not accommodate them all and that passage to mainland Spain was not guaranteed, most individuals turned back. This suggests a coordinated element rather than spontaneous mass movement.

Geopolitical tensions appear to be a significant factor, with analysts suggesting the large-scale border breach likely occurred with at least the tacit approval of Moroccan authorities. Morocco has previously used migration flows as a pressure tool against Spain. During the incident, Moroccan border officials were reportedly absent, despite their usual cooperation with Spanish counterparts to prevent illegal crossings. This aligns with Morocco's strategic use of migration as leverage.

The roots of this conflict are deeply embedded in the dispute over Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony annexed by Morocco in 1975. The Polisario Front, supported by Algeria, also claims the territory. While the UN considers Western Sahara unsettled, Morocco views it as an integral part of its nation. Any action perceived as favoring the Polisario Front, and by extension Algeria, is seen as crossing a red line by Morocco.

This incident follows a similar event in 2021 when Spain allowed the Polisario Front leader to receive medical treatment, leading to thousands entering Ceuta. The timing of the recent breach, shortly after Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced enhanced political, economic, and energy cooperation with Algeria on July 20, suggests a deliberate signal from Morocco to Madrid. Algeria is Morocco's main geopolitical rival in North Africa, and the Western Sahara issue is a key point of contention between them.

Further complicating the situation is US policy, with the Trump administration reportedly maintaining close ties with Morocco and holding a less favorable view of Sanchez's socialist government. Additionally, a recent Spanish Supreme Court decision making it harder to automatically return migrants arriving by sea to Ceuta may have contributed to the influx. Many migrants arrived by sea rather than crossing the land border.