Rupiah predicted to hit Rp 19,000 against dollar in June 2026 amid global tensions

The Indonesian rupiah is bracing for a significant downturn in June 2026, with currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi forecasting a potential breach of the Rp 19,000 mark against the U.S. dollar. This projection suggests a historic low for the Indonesian currency.

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Currently, the rupiah is already above Rp 18,000. In this month of June, the rupiah is likely to be at Rp 19,000 per U.S. dollar.

As of early June, the rupiah had already weakened, opening at Rp 18,003 per dollar and further correcting to Rp 18,051 by mid-afternoon. This decline is occurring even as the U.S. dollar index shows weakness and global crude oil prices are falling, making the rupiah's continued pressure a point of concern.

Assuaibi attributes the rupiah's projected slump to a combination of external and internal factors. Heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the U.S., are cited as a major external driver. The ongoing conflict and potential escalation involving Israel in Southern Lebanon are creating global instability.

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From the external side, the turmoil in the Middle East, especially in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the U.S., continues to heat up, although there are sporadic exchanges of fire that are not very large.

These geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to disrupt global crude oil supply chains, as the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for approximately 20% of the world's crude oil supply (WTI and Brent). Rising oil prices would increase transportation and logistics costs, leading to higher prices for goods and contributing to inflation. This scenario could prompt global central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, to maintain or even increase interest rates throughout 2026.

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This creates a unique tension for the global situation.