Russia claims breakthrough in Donbas; experts question claims

The Kremlin announced a significant claimed victory, stating that Russian forces have fully captured Konstantynivka, a key Ukrainian stronghold in the Donbas region. President Vladimir Putin also declared the complete liberation of Luhansk Oblast and signaled further Russian offensives into Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian authorities have remained silent on the Russian claims concerning Konstantynivka. This lack of official comment comes as Putin reportedly thanked soldiers for their "heroism and successful work" following the alleged capture. The Kremlin's announcement also detailed discussions with the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, about establishing a "security zone" in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions and intensifying offensive operations during the summer.

However, experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cast doubt on Russia's assertions. The ISW noted that Putin frequently makes "highly exaggerated claims about Russian advances that do not correspond to battlefield realities" to create a narrative of consistent military success. They pointed to Putin's claims about operations in Donetsk Oblast, where he stated Russian forces had taken most of Lyman and were nearing Kramatorsk.

According to ISW's assessment, Russian forces currently hold only 4.3% of Lyman's territory, situated approximately 12 km from Mykolaivka and 14 km from Kramatorsk. Regarding Konstantynivka, Putin claimed Russian troops had seized 96% of the city. The ISW countered that Russian forces occupied only 36.96% of the city, failing to establish control or secure lasting positions. Konstantynivka is part of the "fortress belt" in Donbas, which also includes Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk.

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If the Armed Forces of Ukraine attack Russian infrastructure more, the security zone that Russia will have to create will be larger.