Russia could test NATO without invasion, experts warn of 'Trojan horse' hybrid war

NATO intelligence services in Latvia, Poland, and other member states have issued warnings about potential Russian provocations against the Baltic states and Poland. Analysts suggest Russia might test the alliance not with a direct invasion, but through a combination of sabotage, cyberattacks, drone incidents, and disinformation campaigns. These actions would be difficult to attribute directly to Moscow.

Timo Hellenberg, CEO of Hellenberg International, noted that Russia could exploit internal vulnerabilities within NATO countries to create confusion and delay decision-making. This would test the alliance's collective defense mechanisms before a clear attack is identified.

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The question is not if Russia will invade, but how it will test NATO.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the regional security situation as "extremely unstable," with various forms of escalation possible. Polish authorities also warned of Russian services attempting to exploit tensions between Poles and Ukrainian refugees, and showing interest in critical infrastructure, military targets, and organizations supporting Ukraine.

The debate in Europe often focuses on when Russia might launch a conventional invasion. However, some experts argue this is the wrong question. They believe Moscow might instead probe NATO's limits by identifying thresholds where member states hesitate to react uniformly. Scenarios include limited drone or missile strikes, sabotage of energy or transport infrastructure, maritime confrontations, coordinated cyberattacks, border incidents, or acts of violence disguised as internal unrest. The goal would be to test NATO's political and institutional capacity for a rapid, unified response, rather than territorial conquest.

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The security situation in the region is extremely unstable and various forms of escalation are possible in the near future.