Russia May Stage False Flag Drone Attacks in Baltics, Warns Lithuanian Defense Minister

Lithuania's Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas has issued a stark warning, stating that Russia may be planning to conduct 'false flag' attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region using Ukrainian-manufactured drones.

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We have data that Russia is considering unconventional kinetic attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region. Most likely, Russia will use Ukrainian-made drones to do this.

Kaunas indicated that intelligence suggests Russia is considering unconventional kinetic attacks, with Ukrainian drones being the likely instruments. This warning comes amid a backdrop of increased drone activity and incursions in the Baltic states, involving both long-range Ukrainian attack drones and suspected Russian drones. These events have heightened regional tensions.

The minister referenced a recent incident where an unidentified FPV drone attacked a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig Airport. He also noted that in 2026, Ukrainian long-range drones targeting Russian oil infrastructure had accidentally entered the airspace of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland. These drones reportedly deviated due to Russian GPS jamming and spoofing systems, leading to several explosions.

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The Russian society is already asking the regime why it has not managed to achieve victory in Ukraine so far, while Russia itself is being targeted by attacks and facing fuel shortages.

Kaunas reiterated concerns that Russia is using drone incidents to probe NATO's reaction on the alliance's eastern flank. He cited a September 2025 incident where 21 unarmed drones entered Polish airspace. Earlier, on July 30, Kaunas had cautioned that Russian President Vladimir Putin might be contemplating escalating attacks or provocations in the Baltic states, especially as Russia's offensive in Ukraine stagnates. Kaunas suggested that the Kremlin seeks a new escalation or a different kind of victory, with the Baltic region and Poland being the most accessible targets.

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The Kremlin, (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, needs a new escalation, a new type of victory, and in this case, the Baltic region and Poland are the closest targets.