Russia plans to mobilize 600,000 troops by 2027 amid heavy losses, Ukraine intelligence reports

Ukraine's intelligence services have revealed that Russia is preparing for a substantial mobilization, planning to draft an additional 600,000 individuals into its armed forces between 2026 and 2027. This strategic move is reportedly a direct response to Russia's loss of battlefield initiative, a continuous rise in personnel casualties, and a noticeable decline in the recruitment of contract soldiers across its regions.

According to intelligence reports from Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) and Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU), Russian military personnel losses between January and July 2026 are estimated at around 240,000. Of these, a significant portion, at least 140,000, are considered irreversible losses, meaning fatalities. During the same period, Russia managed to recruit approximately 232,000 contract soldiers, a figure lower than its total losses.

In preparation for this new wave of mobilization, which reportedly includes recruiting individuals from penal colonies, Russia is actively amending its legislation and executive acts. Measures include tightening control over military registration, establishing mechanisms for additional recruitment from prisons and penal colonies, and developing further coercive measures. These changes signal a determined effort to bolster military ranks despite ongoing challenges.

Ukrainian intelligence also indicated that the training for these mobilized individuals could range from 15 to 60 days, depending on their skill level and expected service duration. Some training might even take place at military training grounds in Belarus. Russian authorities are reportedly preparing a package of forceful responses to potential negative social and economic consequences that might arise from the implementation of a more stringent wartime regime in cities and regions.

Internal Russian documents allegedly justify the need for further mobilization by citing a significant increase in regional discontent with the war, reportedly reaching 69%, and a decline in voluntary contract enlistments. Efforts to recruit students have also reportedly failed. Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Russian authorities plan to increase the personal responsibility of regional leaders and expand the powers of law enforcement agencies. Measures such as electronic draft notices, travel bans, restrictions on loans and property transactions, and the revocation of driver's licenses are reportedly being implemented or developed to enforce mobilization.

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Russia is developing plans to conduct an additional mobilization wave in 2026–2027, assuming the conscription of 300,000 people this year and another 300,000 next year. Russian political authorities are considering additional mobilization as a response to the aggressor state's loss of initiative in the war, the constant increase in personnel losses on the front, and a clear slowdown in the pace of contract soldier recruitment in the regions.