Russia preparing major attack on Ukraine, may use nuclear plant: ISW

Russia might be planning a significant new offensive against Ukraine, with analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggesting the Kremlin could use the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) as a justification. This warning comes amid escalating tensions and accusations surrounding the occupied facility.

Russian authorities have repeatedly claimed that Ukraine is attacking the ZNPP. Specifically, they reported alleged Ukrainian strikes on May 30 and 31, targeting a power unit's engine room and a transport workshop. However, Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Southern Defense Forces have strongly denied these allegations. Kyiv suggests these accusations serve to divert attention from Russia's illegal occupation of the plant and its militarization.

The ISW report highlights that Russian officials, including Dmitry Medvedev, have previously threatened "symmetrical" attacks on Ukrainian or NATO nuclear facilities if the ZNPP is damaged. The institute notes that Russia has militarized the plant itself, deploying military equipment and personnel, and using the site for drone operations. This pattern of accusations, ISW warns, is often used by Russia to legitimize escalating warfare and intensify long-range strikes against Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously warned of the threat of new, massive Russian strikes on May 29 and 30. The ISW's analysis suggests that the current Kremlin narrative could indeed be paving the way for another large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine in the near future.