Russia's long farewell: Moscow cannot stop former Soviet republics' shift to sovereign states

Moscow is striving to keep Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus within its imperial sphere of influence. However, the aspirations of these former Soviet republics for independence and Western integration are proving stronger, marking a significant shift in the post-Soviet geopolitical landscape.

Following the major NATO and EU expansion rounds in 2004, the West grappled with how to engage countries situated in the 'gray zone' between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic space. These nations, which gained sovereignty in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, include Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Their desire to escape post-Soviet struggles fueled an interest in closer alignment with the West, particularly the European Union, which was associated with prosperity.

In response, the European Commission launched the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) in 2004 to structure relations with its eastern and southern neighbors. The ENP proposed political and economic reforms in exchange for aid and increased market access to the EU. Critics, however, labeled it "expansion without enlargement," suggesting it was an alternative to full EU membership amid growing expansion fatigue in Western Europe.

The 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia highlighted the perceived inadequacy of the ENP in reforming and stabilizing these former Soviet states. This event spurred a greater sense of urgency for more dynamic engagement. In May 2008, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski and his Swedish counterpart Carl Bildt proposed an "Eastern Partnership," intended to develop parallel to the strategic partnership with Russia. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the time warned of the EU establishing an influence zone, foreshadowing future conflicts. The Eastern Partnership was formally launched in Prague in May 2009.