Russia's War Plans: Escalation Possible, Breakthrough Unlikely

Russia may be preparing for further escalation in its war with Ukraine, with sources suggesting potential intensified attacks on Kyiv and critical infrastructure in various Ukrainian cities. This comes as both sides have increased their strikes in recent weeks.

Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil refineries and logistics centers for months, while Russia has increasingly used ballistic missiles against Ukrainian targets, aiming to disrupt grain exports via the Black Sea. Despite these escalations, a breakthrough to end the war is considered unlikely, as Russia is reportedly not ready to cease hostilities, even under Western sanctions and Ukrainian attacks.

Some reports indicate a growing acceptance within the Kremlin for the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. However, Western experts largely view such a move as improbable, citing limited military utility and potentially massive political repercussions. "The military benefit would be small, and the political cost would be high," Aleksandr Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center told Bloomberg.

As long as Russia can intensify its conventional attacks, it is likely to continue doing so. Both China and India have reportedly warned Moscow against the negative consequences of using nuclear weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi next week.

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The military benefit would be small, and the political cost would be high.