São Paulo governor silent as rivals highlight U.S. tariff impact on state exports

Political opponents of São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas are capitalizing on the potential U.S. tariffs, highlighting the economic risks to the state's key industries. A coalition of leftist pre-candidates, including Fernando Haddad for governor and Márcio França for vice-governor, met with agro-business leaders in Catanduva to discuss the projected losses. Their campaign estimates that the tariffs could cost the sugar and alcohol sector US$460 million in exports from 11 plants within a 50 km radius.

Senator Simone Tebet and Marina Silva, also part of the pre-candidacy slate, are reportedly involved in these discussions. Tebet's campaign provided figures for the São José do Rio Preto region, estimating that US$11 million of its US$56 million in exports to the U.S. in 2024 are now threatened by the new tariffs, representing about 20% of the total.

Meanwhile, Governor Tarcísio has conspicuously avoided commenting on the tariffs since they were announced Wednesday. He attended a police academy event but declined to speak with the press. His social media activity has focused on housing projects, playing soccer with children, and an AI-generated video about sanitation improvements, deliberately sidestepping the trade issue. This silence contrasts with his earlier expressed "great concern" and view that the U.S. justifications were "senseless" when the tariffs were first considered.

Within Tarcísio's political circle, there's a division on how to handle the situation. Some advisors advocate for caution, while Bolsonarist allies are pushing for alignment with Flávio Bolsonaro, who is running for president and has blamed the Lula administration for the tariffs. The Lula government, in turn, blames Bolsonaro allies, noting their support for Trump. Tarcísio, who is coordinating Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign in São Paulo, finds himself in a politically sensitive position.