Saxony-Anhalt: How dangerous is the AfD’s landslide for Merz?

The AfD scored a landslide in Saxony-Anhalt, while the CDU suffered a crushing defeat that could reverberate through German federal politics and place Chancellor Friedrich Merz under serious pressure. The CDU roughly halved its 2021 result and failed to reach 20 percent. The AfD more than doubled its showing to above 40 percent.

For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic, a party classified as far-right by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency could take power at state level. That outcome would probably require support from the BSW, which emerged as the possible kingmaker in the latest projections.

Merz followed the drama for six hours from CDU headquarters in Berlin with several members of the party leadership and federal cabinet. When he left at 10:16 p.m., the final result had not yet arrived, but the scale of the CDU’s collapse was already clear. Party secretary-general Franziska Hoppermann handled the public response. “In any case, it is a very difficult result for us and it affects us as Christian Democrats,” she said. Bundestag parliamentary group leader Thorsten Frei called the result “a watershed.”

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In any case, it is a very difficult result for us and it affects us as Christian Democrats.

What happens next in Saxony-Anhalt remains open. The search for those responsible for the electoral disaster, however, is expected to reach Berlin and the chancellery. The CDU’s lead candidate, Schulze, had repeatedly complained that federal politics had overshadowed his campaign. The party canceled a planned meeting of its federal leadership in Magdeburg, and Merz’s two campaign visits were tightly controlled, with brief statements but no questions from voters or journalists.

Merz is likely to bear much of the blame within his own party. His authority had already appeared weakened after criticism of his personnel changes in the CDU before the summer recess. He is expected to argue that the political center must withstand pressure from the far right rather than destroy itself, which would give the AfD another victory. He may also hope that the coalition’s cohesion will ultimately grow stronger.

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A watershed.