Scholars Warn: CCP May Target DPP Strongholds and Swing Districts in Taiwan Election Interference

China's top leadership, meeting at Beidaihe, has ordered intervention in Taiwan's 2026 local elections, viewing them as crucial for Beijing's work on the island. The directive calls for "maximum support" for "patriotic forces" in Taiwan.

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The Chinese Communist Party will intervene in Taiwan's year-end elections and support its collaborators in Taiwan. It will also use AI deepfake software to create false videos. We saw traces of Chinese intervention in the Kuomintang chairman elections, after which Cheng Li-wen was successfully elected. China will upgrade this model by year-end, using AI technology to interfere with elections and confuse candidates' opinions.

Scholars warn that China will leverage AI-generated deepfakes and rumors to discredit Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidates. They also anticipate Beijing mobilizing Taiwanese businesspeople to support pro-China parties, focusing efforts on districts where the DPP holds an advantage or could potentially win.

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China's core objective in facing the 2026 elections at the end of the year is to weaken Taiwanese people's trust in the government. China doesn't need to persuade Taiwanese voters to support a particular party; as long as more people are dissatisfied with the government, doubt the government, and lose trust in the government, it can achieve the effect of election interference.

Experts predict China will escalate its tactics, using AI to interfere with elections and distort candidates' views. They note that China will also utilize new media platforms, employing online armies to suppress or mimic pro-DPP voices, thereby influencing young voters' perceptions of the government. Beijing is expected to back specific parties and candidates, including the Kuomintang and New Party, which acknowledge the "1992 Consensus" and "One China" principle, as well as the Taiwan People's Party and local religious organizations.

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The Chinese Communist Party's 'One China Principle' core has not changed. Looking at the previously promulgated '22 Articles for Punishing Independence,' even advocating for the sovereignty and independence of the Republic of China is considered Taiwan independence. We call on the government to respond more precisely to domestic cognitive warfare against the CCP's massive disinformation and its fifth column in Taiwan, and to strengthen the public's sense of 'us versus them.'

Analysts believe China's core objective is to erode Taiwanese public trust in the government. By fostering dissatisfaction and doubt, Beijing aims to achieve its electoral interference goals without necessarily persuading voters to support a particular party. Concerns are also raised that China's strategy towards Taiwan is becoming more severe than its approach to Hong Kong, potentially leading directly to an "only patriots governing Taiwan" model, leaving Taiwan in a worse position than Hong Kong if its sovereignty is lost.

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China's strategy towards Taiwan is already more severe than that towards Hong Kong. Hong Kong experienced 'Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong' before tightening to 'only patriots governing Hong Kong.' But towards Taiwan, there is no room for maneuver and it intends to go straight to 'only patriots governing Taiwan.' The government and the public must defend the national defense and democratic front, recognize the CCP's united front tactics, otherwise, after losing sovereignty, the situation 'may be worse than Hong Kong.'