SpaceX rocket crashed on the moon, scientists say: ‘100% confidence’

Scientists have expressed "100% confidence" that a discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket stage, which had been drifting in space for over a year, crashed onto the moon on Wednesday morning.

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We can say with 100% confidence that the impact occurred at roughly the predicted time and place.

While direct visual confirmation of the impact site is not yet available, it is expected next week when NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter is scheduled to fly over the area and capture images of the resulting crater. Researchers who have analyzed the event stated they measured a response from the impact, observing a sodium and lithium gas plume.

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measured a response from the rocket stage impact as a sodium and lithium gas plume a few 10’s of km in size lasting between 5 and 10 min after impact.

Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell told The Associated Press that observations on Tuesday night showed the four-tonne upper stage heading directly for the moon. The anticipated crash site was a barren area near Einstein Crater on the moon's western limb, an area challenging to observe from Earth. "There’s no doubt in my mind" that the rocket is now in "teeny, little pieces scattered over the moon," McDowell stated.

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There’s no doubt in my mind that the rocket is now in teeny, little pieces scattered over the moon near Einstein Crater.

Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek also conveyed certainty about the rocket's demise. NASA had predicted the unintentional collision, estimating the impact would carve out a crater approximately 60 feet wide and 12 feet deep. The space agency noted that the incident poses no danger to Earth and that its scientists plan to collect data to refine tracking techniques for space objects. Independent astronomers initially identified the rocket's trajectory using publicly available data, which was later confirmed by NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies.

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no doubt that the rocket met its doom.