SpaceX Valuation Under Half IPO Target, Morningstar Estimates

SpaceX's valuation may be less than half of its ambitious IPO target, according to a financial assessment by U.S. firm Morningstar. Analysts estimate the company's worth at $780 billion, falling short of the $1.75 trillion valuation SpaceX reportedly aims for in its upcoming public offering.

The discrepancy in valuation is largely attributed to uncertainties surrounding SpaceX's artificial intelligence businesses. Morningstar analysts expressed skepticism about the prospects of ventures like xAI and the social media platform X, citing intense competition from rivals such as OpenAI and Anthropic. Nicolas Owens, a Morningstar equity analyst, noted that Grok, the chatbot developed by xAI, is not currently considered a leading AI tool.

Owens also raised concerns about the unproven technologies underpinning SpaceX's AI division, including the concept of orbital data centers. Furthermore, the satellite broadband service Starlink faces significant technological hurdles that are largely beyond the company's control. Morningstar concluded that SpaceX's stock might be overvalued, suggesting investors could find more attractive entry points after the IPO.

SpaceX is scheduled to commence its roadshow on June 4 and aims to list its shares on the Nasdaq exchange on June 12, 2026. Despite potential valuation concerns, Morningstar anticipates a short-term stock price increase post-listing, driven by a low circulating share count and the involvement of major investment banks as underwriters, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BofA Securities.