Spain Favored Over Belgium in 2026 World Cup Quarterfinal Clash

Spain is heavily favored to advance to the semifinals of the 2026 World Cup when they face Belgium in the quarterfinals at SoFi Stadium on Saturday, July 11. Opta Analyst's simulations predict Spain will win in regular time with a 58.3 percent probability, while Belgium has only a 19.1 percent chance. Spain's overall chances of reaching the semifinals, including extra time and penalties, increase to 69.8 percent.

This prediction is bolstered by Spain's dominant head-to-head record against Belgium. Belgium has not secured a victory against Spain in their last 11 encounters across all competitions. Furthermore, Spain has won the most recent five matches with an impressive aggregate score of 13-1, highlighting a significant historical advantage.

Despite Belgium's recent offensive improvements, including a strong showing against the United States where Charles De Ketelaere scored twice and Romelu Lukaku added another goal, their attacking prowess will be severely tested. Romelu Lukaku, who has scored in three consecutive World Cup matches as a substitute, is expected to start on the bench again. Belgium's shooting conversion rate of 12.1 percent is the second best in their World Cup history, and they average 21.4 shots per game.

Spain's defense, however, has been a nearly impenetrable wall throughout the tournament. La Roja has achieved six consecutive clean sheets, most recently shutting out Portugal in the round of 16. Their defensive solidity, combined with their offensive capabilities, makes them a formidable opponent for any team, including a resurgent Belgian side.

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Belgium will hope they are hitting form at the perfect time ahead of Friday’s World Cup quarter-final against Spain in Los Angeles.