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Subcontinent May Face Weak Monsoon as 'Super El Niño' Looms
🇵🇰 Pakistan

Subcontinent May Face Weak Monsoon as 'Super El Niño' Looms

From Dawn · (1d ago) English Critical tone

Translated from English, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

TLDR

  • Pakistan may experience a weaker monsoon season this summer due to the expected formation of an El Niño event.
  • The El Niño phenomenon, predicted to become a 'super El Niño' by late August or September, typically suppresses monsoon rains in the subcontinent.
  • Last year's El Niño contributed to record-breaking global temperatures, and its impact could be more pronounced in 2027 if it develops later this year.

Pakistan's weather outlook for the upcoming summer is concerning, with experts predicting a subdued monsoon season. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) spokesperson, Anjum Nazir Zaigham, has indicated that the anticipated formation of an El Niño event, potentially escalating into a 'super El Niño' by late August or September, could significantly suppress the vital monsoon rains across the subcontinent.

We are expecting El Niño in the coming summer and it is expected to become ‘super El Nino’ by the end of August to September.

— Anjum Nazir ZaighamPakistan Meteorological Department spokesperson explaining the forecast for the El Niño phenomenon.

This forecast carries substantial implications for Pakistan, where the monsoon season is crucial for agriculture and water resources. A weaker monsoon could lead to drought conditions, impacting crop yields and potentially exacerbating water scarcity issues. The PMD's warning aligns with global climate patterns, as El Niño events are known to disrupt weather systems worldwide, often resulting in drier conditions in regions like Southeast Asia.

While international bodies like NOAA provide data on El Niño's probability, the local perspective in Pakistan emphasizes the direct impact on the nation's climate and economy. The memory of 2023 being one of the hottest years on record, partly influenced by the previous El Niño, adds to the apprehension. The potential for even stronger global temperature increases if the event develops later this year, as suggested by climate scientist Tido Semmler, further underscores the seriousness of the situation for Pakistan.

El Niño suppresses the summer monsoon in the subcontinent.

— Anjum Nazir ZaighamPakistan Meteorological Department spokesperson explaining the impact of El Niño on monsoon rains.

The PMD's specific forecast for Sindh and Karachi highlights immediate concerns, predicting hot and dry weather with temperatures soaring. This localized forecast serves as an early indicator of the broader climatic challenges Pakistan might face in the coming months, making the development and intensity of the El Niño event a critical issue for national planning and disaster preparedness.

It takes time for the global atmosphere to react to the El Nino.

— Tido SemmlerA climate scientist at Ireland’s National Meteorological Service commenting on the delayed effects of El Niño.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Dawn in English. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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