Sudan War Risks Spilling Across Borders as Regional Tensions Rise

The fear that Sudan’s war could become a regional conflict is no longer confined to private assessments. Cross-border strikes, mutual accusations between Sudan and Chad, and troubling military movements near the Ethiopian border have pushed the concern into the open.

Massad Boulos, the U.S. president’s senior adviser for Arab and African affairs, carried the warning to the U.N. Security Council. He also spoke with Chadian President Mahamat Idriss Deby after reports of a military strike inside Chad. Boulos said the two leaders expressed “deep concern about the war in Sudan spilling across its borders, fueling further escalation and threatening regional peace and stability.” They called for an end to external support for the warring parties.

The U.S. warning appears to reflect more than public observation. Washington’s intelligence capabilities allow it to monitor military movements, weapons and drone routes, as well as cross-border networks. By raising the issue at the Security Council, the administration signaled that it considers the risks real and growing, even though it has not disclosed all the information behind its assessment.

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deep concern about the war in Sudan spilling across its borders, fueling further escalation and threatening regional peace and stability

More than three years into the war, Sudan is no longer simply the site of an internal confrontation between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Fighting has reached areas bordering Chad and Ethiopia, while the use of sophisticated weapons has expanded. The calculations of neighboring states now intersect with the interests of regional and international powers.

The U.N. Fact-Finding Mission said weapons, military technology, fighters and external supply networks are strengthening both sides and prolonging the war. It described a cross-border network involving individuals, entities and countries that allegedly provided the RSF with weapons, equipment, logistical support and foreign personnel. The countries named have denied the accusations and said they support neutrality and peace efforts. The mission said its inquiry into external support for the army remained at an early stage.

Sudanese researcher Kholood Khair told the Financial Times in April that the war had “spread across the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa and the Sahel,” leaving none of Sudan’s seven neighbors entirely untouched. Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group has likewise said the conflict is dividing the region and deepening polarization among surrounding countries.

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spread across the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa and the Sahel