“Super El Niño” or “El Niño Godzilla”: What is the threat of this climate phenomenon?

The climate phenomenon known as El Niño is strengthening in the Pacific Ocean, raising the probability of a historically powerful event, an unusual "Super El Niño" or "El Niño Godzilla", by mid-2026 and early 2027. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, in its latest update on May 14, 2026, indicates an 82% chance of El Niño emerging between May and July 2026 and a 96% probability it will continue through February 2027.

Scientists are concerned about the potential intensity of this El Niño, which could disrupt global weather for months. NOAA maintains an alert, citing a two-thirds probability that its maximum intensity will be strong or very strong. El Niño is a natural climate event occurring when Pacific Ocean waters experience anomalous warming. This warming alters wind patterns and atmospheric pressure, leading to drastic global climate changes, including intense rainfall in some regions and severe droughts in others. A "Super El Niño" refers to a particularly intense version of this phenomenon.

On average, El Niño occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months. Its intensity is measured by how much water temperatures rise above the average in a specific area of the Pacific. El Niño develops when water temperatures exceed the average by 0.5 degrees Celsius for a prolonged period. For the phenomenon to be considered very strong or a "Super El Niño," water temperatures must be two degrees above average. NOAA reports that water temperatures are currently below the 0.5-degree threshold but are expected to surpass it in the coming weeks, with the likelihood of El Niño strengthening throughout the second half of 2026.

Experts are concerned not only about El Niño's arrival but also its magnitude. Some climate models suggest an event comparable to the "Super El Niños" of 1982, 1997, or 2015, which were associated with heatwaves, massive wildfires, and historic tropical cyclone seasons. Even if this year's El Niño does not reach "super" status, it is likely to be very strong. Regardless of its strength, significant global impacts are expected. BBC Mundo notes that several Latin American countries, particularly Mexico and Central America, have historically experienced the "most evident impacts" due to their proximity to unusually warm Pacific waters. Strong El Niño events tend to cause droughts and create conditions conducive to hurricane formation in the region.