The high cost of a world without rules: Poland's stake in global order

The global order, long shaped by liberal democracies with the U.S. at the forefront, is facing a potential transition away from a single hegemonic power. Martin Wolf's analysis in the Financial Times questions not just the decline of U.S. leadership relative to China, but more critically, whether a globalized world can function without a state or group of states capable of maintaining the rules of international engagement.

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The price of the decline of these [global rules] can be concrete. The World Trade Organization estimates that trade fragmentation into two blocs, combined with rising tariffs and other barriers, could reduce global real GDP by almost 7% by 2040. This would be the tangible price of a world where rules give way to geopolitics.

This established order, built on the dollar, Bretton Woods institutions, and trade liberalization, historically served Western interests. While a hegemon provides global public goods, it does so according to its own interests. However, the increasing interconnectedness of economies through trade, capital, technology, and data necessitates predictability. The World Trade Organization estimates that trade fragmentation could reduce global real GDP by nearly 7% by 2040, highlighting the tangible cost of a world where geopolitics trumps rules.

The weakening of a dominant power does not automatically lead to a new, stable order. Instead, it increases vulnerability to cascading crises. Modern shocks amplify each other: geopolitical events raise energy prices, which fuel inflation, leading to higher interest rates that increase debt costs. This interconnectedness of crises, termed 'polycrisis,' affects businesses, banks, and state budgets alike.

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The paradox is that autocracies also need a world order. China built its power through integration with the global economy, capital inflows, and access to Western markets.

Paradoxically, even autocratic states like China have benefited immensely from global integration, relying on foreign investment and access to Western markets. Europe's strength is tied to its single market, standards, and institutions. For Poland, this is not an abstract debate about hegemony; it is about the fundamental conditions for growth. With Polish exports representing about 50% of its GDP and deep integration into European supply chains, the weakening of international rules directly impacts the national budget, debt levels, defense spending, energy prices, and business resilience. Security is no longer a backdrop but a primary cost of development.

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For Poland, this is not an abstract debate about the end of American hegemony. What is crucial is not who the hegemon is, but whether there is a force capable of upholding the rules. For great powers, order is an instrument of influence. For Poland - a condition for growth.