The Winning Formula for Nigeria’s Presidential Elections

Nigeria’s presidential elections have followed a pattern that opposition parties should not overlook, argues Simon Kolawole in his forthcoming book, ‘Anatomy of Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election’. As rival parties hesitate over how to dislodge the APC from Aso Rock, Kolawole says the basic formula for winning has remained visible beneath the emotion surrounding each contest.

His central argument is the “two out of three” rule. Nigeria’s political structure, he writes, rests on three major power blocs: the Hausa/Fulani, the Igbo and the Yoruba. Together, they dominate four of the country’s six geopolitical zones and nearly two-thirds of its 36 states. The Hausa and Fulani dominate the north-east and north-west, the Igbo the south-east, and the Yoruba the south-west.

Since 1999, Kolawole says, no presidential candidate has won without taking significant votes from at least two of the three blocs. He defines significant support as roughly 30 percent or more, rather than a landslide. Candidates must also win a decent share of the minority zones, the north-central and south-south.

The 1999 election illustrates the point. Olusegun Obasanjo lost in his south-west home zone but performed strongly in the core north and south-east, defeating Olu Falae, who won only the Yoruba-dominated zone. Four years later, Muhammadu Buhari again performed well in the core north, but that gave him only one of the three major blocs. Obasanjo won the south-west and south-east and secured re-election, along with a substantial share of the minority zones.

Kolawole says Buhari had hoped the election would go to a runoff, where northern numbers could help him win. His book is due for publication in the last week of October 2026.

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