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There Will Be No Lasting Agreement Between the U.S. and Iran
🇳🇴 Norway /Conflict & Security

There Will Be No Lasting Agreement Between the U.S. and Iran

From Aftenposten · () Norwegian

Translated from Norwegian, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Context piece
  • A new agreement between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely to be lasting, according to an Iranian analyst and journalist.
  • The deal lacks political legitimacy within Iran, with various factions likely to interpret it according to their own interests.
  • The agreement also fails to address the demands of the Iranian people, who have endured decades of oppression, and does not resolve the regime's fundamental legitimacy crisis.

An Iranian analyst and journalist suggests that any new agreement between the United States and Iran, even if finalized and signed, will likely prove fragile and short-lived. This assessment stems from a deep-seated mistrust between the two nations, which has persisted for 47 years, and a lack of genuine political consensus within Iran itself.

The core issue, according to the analysis, is the agreement's vulnerability to differing interpretations by various factions within the Iranian regime. Each group may seek to leverage the terms to advance its own agenda, undermining any unified approach. Furthermore, the deal's regional implications, particularly concerning groups like Hezbollah and Iran's broader network of allies, are complex. These regional actors are not necessarily bound by a U.S.-Iran accord, and nations like Israel, which have recently experienced heightened tensions, may have little incentive to adhere to terms they did not help shape.

The analyst emphasizes that Iran has invested heavily over decades in building regional influence and establishing the Middle East as an ideological battleground. Recent attacks on Gulf states demonstrate a strategy of ensuring no one is safe, making stability elusive even with a potential U.S.-Iran deal. The article posits that the regime's efforts to navigate geopolitical challenges through negotiations with the U.S. cannot resolve its persistent crisis of legitimacy at home.

Crucially, the agreement overlooks the demands of the Iranian people, who have lived under severe oppression for decades. The analyst points to the aftermath of protests and ongoing executions, which have widened the gap between the state and its citizens. Therefore, while a U.S.-Iran deal might offer temporary relief from geopolitical pressure, it fails to address the fundamental domestic issues that threaten the regime's stability, making any lasting accord highly improbable from its inception.

Avtalen mangler politisk legitimitet, særlig i Iran, der ulike fraksjoner i regimet vil tolke den ut fra sine egne interesser.

— Moloud HajizadehThe analyst highlights the internal political divisions in Iran as a weakness for any agreement.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Aftenposten in Norwegian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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