This Will Be the Strongest El Niño in History. Important Information for Poland

Poland faces the prospect of experiencing one of the most powerful El Niño events in recorded history, a phenomenon that could have far-reaching consequences for global weather systems. Scientists emphasize that while El Niño is a natural cycle of oceanic and atmospheric changes, its current manifestation is occurring against the backdrop of accelerating global warming.

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Climate change does not mean that every week will be warmer than the previous one. It means that the entire temperature distribution is changing: cold episodes still occur, but they are becoming rarer and less intense, and heatwaves are appearing more frequently and are hotter.

Michał Brennek from the Institute of Geophysics of the Polish Academy of Sciences explains that climate change doesn't eliminate cold spells but rather shifts the entire temperature distribution. This means cold episodes become rarer and less intense, while heatwaves become more frequent and severe. He likens El Niño to an irregular swing that moves heat between the ocean and atmosphere, but it's the rising baseline temperature due to global warming that makes each subsequent El Niño more potent.

Recent forecasts indicate that the upcoming El Niño could reach an anomaly unprecedented in nearly 150 years of observations, potentially making it the strongest ever recorded. This intensification is linked to the overall warming of the atmosphere, which holds more energy and moisture, leading to higher maximum temperatures, prolonged heatwaves, and more intense rainfall during storms.

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It can be compared to an irregularly operating swing... The phenomenon moves heat accumulated in the ocean to the atmosphere in various places in the tropical Pacific, in an irregular rhythm of two to seven years, but it does not add or subtract it from the climate system.

While the direct weather impacts of this specific El Niño on Poland remain uncertain, experts anticipate that its influence might be more pronounced in the economy, particularly through food prices. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events globally, driven by both El Niño and long-term warming trends, underscore the complex challenges facing climate adaptation and food security.

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Due to global warming, the new level is from which this swing starts – each subsequent El Niño lifts us higher than the previous one.