This Year’s El Niño Could Be the Strongest in a Century

El Niño is intensifying across the tropical Pacific and could become the strongest such event in at least a century. Its most pronounced effects are expected in tropical and subtropical areas around the Pacific, where it can shift rainfall patterns and temperatures and increase the risk of droughts, floods and wildfires.

The pattern typically raises the risk of drought between summer and autumn in Indonesia, India, Central America, northern South America and eastern Australia. Slovenia’s Environment Agency expects the direct effect in Europe to be small, although the climate pattern’s influence can reach beyond the Pacific.

The latest forecasts coincide with a study published in Science. Researchers analyzed modern and ancient coral records from the Galápagos Islands and found that El Niño events over the past four decades were nearly 40% stronger than those in the preindustrial era.

The researchers found no comparably intense period in the previous 1,000 years. Their findings indicate that global warming is strengthening a naturally occurring climate fluctuation, adding force to a pattern already capable of disrupting rainfall and temperature across large regions.