Time to end Labour uncertainty in Makerfield

Voters in the Greater Manchester constituency of Makerfield are heading to the polls for a by-election that carries significant weight, potentially influencing the future of the Labour Party and its leadership. The contest is primarily seen as a platform for Andy Burnham, the current Mayor of Manchester, to re-enter national politics with ambitions of challenging for the party leadership.

Burnham, who previously served as the MP for Leigh, has openly stated his intention to use a Westminster return as a launchpad for a bid to replace Sir Keir Starmer. What initially appeared to be a straightforward path to Parliament for Burnham has become more complex, with a notable challenge from the Reform UK party and the looming prospect of a Labour leadership contest.

Despite early risks, recent polling suggests Burnham has gained an advantage, with a lead of at least 5%. This improvement is attributed to his campaign performance and a split vote on the right, partly due to the presence of the further-right Restore Britain party. However, uncertainties remain, including the potential for "shy" Reform voters, fluctuating turnout, and the impact of unforeseen events.

Even if Burnham secures victory, his leadership ambitions face further hurdles. He must navigate the timing of any challenge and secure sufficient support among MPs. Potential rivals, including Wes Streeting and possibly others, could emerge, making his path to leadership far from guaranteed. Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer's position appears increasingly precarious amid recent political setbacks and internal party ructions.