Trump’s tariff war pushes Brazil’s trade towards China as US share hits record low

The United States' share of Brazilian exports has plummeted to its lowest point since 1997 in the first half of 2026, as China significantly expands its dominance as Brazil's primary trading partner. The American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil reported that U.S. buyers accounted for just 9.4 percent of Brazilian exports from January to June, a notable decrease from 12.1 percent in the same period last year.

Conversely, China's share surged to 31.5 percent, capturing nearly a third of all Brazilian sales abroad. Brazilian exports to the U.S. decreased by 13 percent, totaling $17.4 billion, while shipments to China saw a substantial increase of 21.9 percent. This overall decline has reduced total trade between Brazil and the U.S. by 12.8 percent.

The report coincides with Washington's public hearings on a proposed new round of tariffs targeting Brazilian goods. These tariffs appear to be a key factor in this trade realignment. Brazilian exporters are actively seeking new markets, with 72 percent of companies assisted by the government's trade promotion agency having successfully opened at least one new market since the tariffs were imposed.

This shift in trade dynamics is profound. China is now the top trading partner for 14 Brazilian states, a stark reversal from two decades ago when the U.S. held that position for 17 states. Today, only six states count the U.S. as their largest market, illustrating a significant reorientation of Brazil's global trade relationships.