Turkey expands Libya influence as Fidan meets Haftar amid US-backed reunification push - analysis

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's recent visit to Khalifa Haftar's family compound in Benghazi marks a significant diplomatic milestone, granting Ankara direct access to the leadership of eastern Libya for the first time in over a decade. This engagement positions Turkey to influence both halves of the divided nation, which has been split since the 2011 collapse of Moammar Gadhafi's government.

The visit has drawn attention from various international actors. Israeli officials and commentators are scrutinizing Turkey's expanding influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. The move also puts pressure on a U.S.-backed reunification plan for Libya that relies on coordination between Egypt and Turkey. Conversely, Turkish pro-government commentators celebrated the visit as evidence of Ankara's growing regional sway.

Libya remains politically and militarily divided. Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah's internationally recognized Government of National Unity in Tripoli receives Turkish military support, while Haftar's Libyan National Army and allied institutions control the east and south, backed by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia. A 2020 ceasefire halted Haftar's campaign to capture Tripoli but did not unify the country's institutions.

Fidan's trip included prior meetings in Tripoli with Dbeibah and subsequent talks in Egypt with Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. "Turkey does not consider Libya's peace and stability separately from its own stability," Fidan stated. Hany El-Aasar, executive director of the Cairo-based National Center for Studies, emphasized the strategic necessity of Egyptian-American agreement on the Libyan file, noting Cairo's shift from supporting Haftar against a Turkish-backed Tripoli government to coordinating with Turkey.

Analysts interpret Fidan's shuttle diplomacy not as an abandonment of Turkey's previous Libya policy, but as an evolution of its strategic gains into a wider architecture of influence across the country. Kaan Devecioğlu of the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Studies noted that normalization with Egypt has been crucial in enabling this rapprochement with Haftar. The article also references a prior, unpublicized visit by Turkey's intelligence chief to Benghazi in 2023.

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Turkey does not consider Libya's peace and stability separately from its own stability.