Turkey’s energy report reveals the challenges ahead

At first glance, the International Energy Agency’s new review of Turkey’s energy policy offers a positive picture. Renewable power is expanding, natural gas production is rising in the Black Sea, Akkuyu is bringing nuclear energy into the mix, and LNG terminals and pipelines are diversifying supply.

Read more closely, however, and the report’s central message becomes clear: Turkey is entering a more difficult phase. The challenge is no longer simply to produce more energy. It is to meet rapidly rising electricity demand without deepening import dependence or inflating the energy bill.

Electricity demand increased by an average of 5% a year between 2005 and 2024, the highest rate among IEA member countries. The agency expects demand to continue growing through 2035, driven particularly by industry and households. Turkey therefore faces what the report describes as roughly a decade-long investment marathon.

Renewables accounted for 43% of electricity generation in 2025. Under the National Energy Plan, that share is expected to reach 55% by 2035. Solar capacity is planned to grow nearly fourfold from 2024 levels, while wind capacity is expected to triple. Once Akkuyu reaches full capacity, nuclear power is projected to represent about 10% of installed capacity.

But building solar panels and wind farms will not be enough. As renewable generation expands, Turkey will need to move electricity from production centers to consumers, store surplus power and keep the system balanced. The country plans to substantially expand its transmission network by 2035 and add 7.5 gigawatts of battery storage. The IEA also calls for demand management, digital solutions and stronger regional electricity interconnections. The next bottleneck in the energy transition may therefore be the grid, not power plants.

Coal remains a major complication. Turkey consumed about 120 million tonnes of coal in 2025, making it Europe’s largest coal consumer. Coal supplied one-quarter of total energy demand in 2024 and more than one-third of electricity generation. Although the carbon intensity of electricity generation has declined, it remains among the highest in the IEA membership.

That leaves Turkey balancing supply security against Europe’s carbon rules and the competitiveness of its export industries. The IEA recommends a fair and orderly transition for coal-dependent regions and workers. Its 10 policy recommendations also include more transparent, market-based energy prices, sustainable financing for nuclear power, a more flexible electricity market, an emissions trading system and a carbon tax on companies outside that system. Turkey largely knows what it needs to do in energy. The question is how quickly it can do it.