Turkey's new ballistic missile puts Israel in range, experts downplay threat

Ankara possesses a new Tayfun Block-4 ballistic missile, capable of striking targets up to 1,500 kilometers away, according to Turkish media reports. This development places Israel squarely within the missile's potential range.

The missile, developed by the state-owned defense company Roketsan, is a heavier version weighing 7.2 tons and measuring approximately 10 meters in length. Its design allows for mid-flight maneuvers, complicating interception by air defense systems. With an estimated accuracy of less than five meters and speeds exceeding Mach 5.5, the Tayfun Block-4 represents a significant advancement, granting Turkey independent strategic strike capabilities without requiring U.S. or European approval.

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The missile's theoretical range could cover Israel.

Despite the missile's theoretical range, Israeli military experts are reportedly attempting to downplay the threat. They point to Israel's multi-layered air defense systems, including Arrow 2, Arrow 3, and David's Sling, which are designed to counter advanced ballistic missiles. Furthermore, experts highlight Turkey's status as a NATO member and signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, emphasizing that the missile carries conventional, not nuclear, warheads, thus limiting its destructive potential.

Analysts also interpret Ankara's statements about the missile's reach as part of a psychological warfare effort, particularly amid deteriorating relations between the two countries. However, they assess the likelihood of direct military confrontation between NATO member Turkey and Israel as low. Roketsan has previously stated that its Tayfun Block-3 missile successfully destroyed a moving surface target at long range with high precision. In December 2022, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the Tayfun had reached a range of 560 kilometers and was being upgraded to 1,000 kilometers.

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Turkey is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), while the missile carries conventional warheads, not nuclear ones, thus limiting the destruction it can cause.