Typhoon 'Bailu' peak has passed but remains a threat; path and Taiwan impact probability revealed

Typhoon "Bailu," currently a super typhoon, is moving northwest by west and is expected to pass near Japan's Ryukyu Islands. Meteorologist Wu Derong stated that "Bailu" has passed its peak intensity and will gradually weaken. The latest European model's "storm range probability map" indicates a 70% chance of its storm radius affecting the Ryukyu Islands. However, there is still a 20% probability of it impacting northern Taiwan's land areas, necessitating close monitoring.

Wu Derong explained on the "Heaven's Secret Classroom" column of the Climate Change Promotion Foundation that according to the Central Weather Administration's "path potential forecast map," "Bailu" will weaken to a large typhoon at the upper limit of a moderate typhoon. Over the next five days, it will move northwest by west, approaching the Ryukyu Islands. Meanwhile, a tropical depression located east of Luzon is expected to turn northeast. Even if this tropical depression develops into a typhoon, it will be a "short-lived typhoon."

The latest European model (ECMWF) ensemble simulation from the evening of August 1st shows a "storm range probability map" for the next 10 days. The ensemble average path indicates it will pass near the Ryukyu Islands, the southern East China Sea, and then make landfall between Zhejiang and Fujian. The probability of its storm range affecting the Ryukyu Islands is 70%, while the probability for northern Taiwan's sea areas is about 50%, and for land areas, it is around 20%.

Wu Derong cautioned that due to "Bailu's" large impact range and its path adjusting over northern Taiwan's sea areas, continuous close observation is necessary, and complacency should be avoided.

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The latest European model's "storm range probability map" shows a 70% chance of its storm radius affecting the Ryukyu Islands, but there is also a 20% chance for northern Taiwan's land areas, which still requires close observation.